What is Liverpool’s best midfield combination?

The question “what is Liverpool’s best midfield combination?” cannot be answered by writing a few names next to each other on a piece of paper or a screen. The engine, the control room, the brain of the team. However you describe it, midfield is integral to how a team plays and performs. Its construction is dependent on how the manager wants his team to play but also in a chicken and egg kind of way, it is optimized based on the team (and players) performance at any given moment. Midfield is a crucial part of a functional team and it can’t be selected without assessing the team as a whole. To select a midfield is to select a team.

The club’s philosophy, the manager’s tactical tendencies and preferred system of play are all factored in as well as the league and competition down to the opposition faced, in-game situations and the results needed.
Some managers concentrate almost exclusively on their team. Others think that the only way to consistently deliver is by studying how their opposition play and set their team up to counter their strengths and exploit their weaknesses. To put it simply, some are idealist, others pragmatist. Yet one doesn’t exclude the other and the end of the spectrum a manager leans towards can often change depending on their current predicament.

Formations are the platform to a tactical setup / system of play. The implementation though, starts by defining the roles of the players inside it. Players attributes and ability determine the scope available to define them. Through the team, roles can be more or less specialized. Some concepts such as midfield rotation require players who are all-rounded and this can be applied through the whole team with players in every position being comfortable in all facets of the game to achieve optimum interchangeability (total football) or all very strong in specific attributes (tiki-taka). Alternatively, roles can be strictly defined and players with specific strengths targeted to fulfill them.

How Rodgers wants the team to play is an interesting (and difficult) question to answer because while the way he talks about football portrays him as an idealist in his vision of the game, he has at times shown himself to be a pragmatist in his in-game approach. He doesn’t really set his teams up with a focus on the opposition but he adapts it to maximize the players at his disposal and the combinations that have brought success.

He did not stick with the pure possession based, high line 4-3-3 (DM-Link-Creator) he used at the beginning (and at Swansea prior to his arrival) when it did not work. He tried the more solid (in theory) 4-2-3-1 for a while and mid-way through last year switched to a higher tempo 4-3-3 (deep lying playmaker + two box-to-box) as well as the 4-4-2 diamond in a similar midfield set up. The beginning of this season as again seen him tinker in search of a winning combination.

The main of the discussion in this thread revolves around who should play the “controller” role. Whether the team should go back to a double pivot to offer a fragile defense more protection. Why Lucas over Gerrard could offer more balance. If Rogers even sees a need for a defensive minded player in that position.

This interview from January 2014 is one where he reiterates his idea of how he sees the team play: http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/liverpool-fc-brendan-rodgers-plan-6525151.

Rodgers highlights how the change from 2-1 to 1-2 in midfield with a single pivot was the way forward as far as he was concern. He talks about how Gerrard’s qualities fit the role of “controller” perfectly. It is also important to notice that he mentions the need for Gerrard to adapt to the intricacies the required to play the position. There is also a fair appraisal of Lucas effectiveness as a single pivot when the switch was initially made.

He clearly states that in his preferred approach, the “controller” does not need to do a lot of leg work. Short quick movement is what is required defensively and the two more advanced players are the one doing the pressing. The emphasis being on the distribution of the ball. Gerrard’s comparison with Pirlo exemplifying why he thinks he is the perfect candidate for that role.

We all have ideas about how football should be played, about how Liverpool should play. Obviously, so does Brendan Rodgers. Any discussion we have about our team involves a bit of both. How we think it should be from our perspective as well as Rodgers’. This means that any argumentation about which player should play in what position also requires us to contextualize it for the role this player must accomplish in Rogers’ system or explain the requirement we expect from it.

In addition to the prior which could be describe as the theoretical side of the the team selection, there is the actual execution of a system and the game plan designed for it. Nothing is fixed in football. What works one day may not the other. What should work in theory may not transpire on the pitch as despite the necessity/usefulness of tactical preparation, a football team is merely composed of individuals, human beings who bring an unpredictable variable to the equation.

We often describe a good team as one who possess balance. A good mix. One that is in tune with the way its manager wants it to play. We all know the best team is not necessarily the one with the best players but one that functions the best collectively. The sum can be greater than its parts. In the quest to achieve this, a key element is to find players who combine well together, form partnerships, have a good understanding. They should have complimentary football qualities but also possess the intangible affinity that make them work in collaboration with each other. Sometimes it happens naturally but most of the time it must be cultivated over time. The players need time to gel, adapt to new surrounding, to new football ideas.

I believe this is where LFC is failing at the moment. The tactics implemented last year, the combinations used, the confidence, belief and trust throughout the team. All seem to have suffered. Can it all be attributed to the loss of Suarez and subsequent injury to Sturridge? Certainly not. Has it been compounded by it? Off course it has. New players arrivals (good or bad recruitment aside) and their integration into the team have had an impact. Was the recruitment drive lacking in certain areas and qualities? In hindsight, it definitely looks like it. Have some of Rodgers decisions in regards to team selection and tactics also been detrimental? They must have (I’m sure he would admit it in confidence too). Finally, there can’t be any doubt that rival teams have studied the way we played and adapted accordingly.

At the end of the day, results are king and if the team is winning, few questions about the quality of the football played or the suitability of certain players to step on the pitch are asked. In difficult times, we need to question ourselves as we search for solutions. It is time for our manager to do the same.

What now then? Back to basics is the natural reaction when things are not working. Make ourselves difficult to beat. Shore up the defense by adding extra protection in front of it. It makes sense. The reality though is that changing the philosophy of the team is counter-productive. Persisting with it and making it work is actually the way forward. That doesn’t mean not changing anything. The manager has to accept that what worked so well in the past isn’t at the moment.

From that perspective, there is legitimate questions to be asked about the persistence with Gerrard in the deeper midfield position(s). It’s difficult to understand why in the league, Rodgers has tried every combination of midfield including Gerrard as a single or double pivot but will not try any combination without him – West Ham first half being the only exception. He did it before, why not try it again? Maybe last year second half of the season run with Gerrard as a single pivot convinced him he is by far the best choice for the position.

In general though, it is quite frankly baffling that we are in the situation where at 34, Gerrard is still playing every minute of every game in the league and sometimes has even been used from the start three times a week this season. It is not about dropping the captain altogether from the team but instead making a more economical use of an ageing player.

The idea of the summer was to build a squad with strength in depth and competition for places. Rodgers has to look at the options at his disposal and entertain the idea that other combinations may be more suited to once again form a team that performs better then (or at least as well as) the sum of its parts and not the other way around.

He has to analyse his selections pattern and find the link between them, the performances and the results. Look at the strength and weaknesses of the players, the roles they are asked to play and the performances they have offered then make an assessment as to where it can be improved and whether it is the personnel or the tactics that need to change.

The best midfield combination is the one that enables the team to play better as a whole. It is not only about what each player contributes individually but also the platform a balance and cohesive partnership (trio) provides. If the team is struggling to find form with the current setup, it stands to reason to try a different approach, in particular one which has proved to be effective in the past.

That’s why there is a strong argument to try any combination that includes Lucas at the base without Gerrard in the “2” in front of him or even a double pivot from two of Lucas/Henderson/Allen/Can. It won’t magically fix everything but a fresh approach is often the best way to change things around. It is easy to understand the difficulty of making this decision as it will be portrayed as Rodgers effectively dropping Gerrard. The truth is, it is merely rotation and it is something that needs to be done at some point no matter what.

Originally posted Nocilo on RAWK Forums.

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Alberto And Aspas Signings Bring Uncertainty.

The footballing Spanish Armada is approaching Merseyside for a sequel, it seems. After the arrival of 16 Spaniards at Anfield over the past 10 years, two more sail along the river within 48 hours. Liverpool have officially confirmed the signatures of forwards Iago Aspas and Luis Alberto – two players raised at the top and tail of the country, now brought together by Brendan Rodgers.

If Rodgers faced accusation of targeting players he knew well last summer, the finger will point less firmly now. It is a nod of the transfer committee’s work, while supporting the theory the world should not have been placed upon the shoulders of a manager yet to turn 40-years-old.

But though Liverpool monitored Alberto since last year, these are still players who represent meticulous scouting; two attacking assets – one from the lower reaches of La Liga, the other on loan at Barcelona’s B side – that few people in Britain know about.

It is high risk, high reward for Liverpool. Aspas is described as feisty, temperamental and mercurial by those who have watched him intently, but he is one flashpoint away from being labelled a liability; Alberto is highly-regarded, thought to have the potential to belie Barcelona’s decision to not sign him on a permanent contract, but failure to show that immediately will discard him on the scrapheap of failed talents.

There are few certainties surrounding the two, undoubted gambles ahead of a season that needs stability more than anything. Not every new signing can hit the ground running, weaving, gliding like Philippe Coutinho, the Brazilian who nutmegged the air hostess at John Lennon Airport before his contract was even signed.

But Coutinho will no doubt be the five foot seven yardstick for every signing from abroad, particularly those of attacking persuasion. Both Aspas and Alberto can play across the front three forward positions, a trait clearly favoured by Rodgers, as well as a more withdrawn, creative role behind the central striker.

A number of Alberto’s favourable statistics – 11 goals and 18 assists, as arbitrary as the latter can be – have come from the left-hand side, his right foot doing damage; Aspas, meanwhile, played as a lone striker for Celta Vigo but is equally comfortable using trickery in a deeper position to bypass defenders. Both are roles performed admirably by Coutinho.

Uncertainty abounds – uncertainty over how the two will adapt to England; uncertainty over how, and when, they will fit in alongside Coutinho. There is also uncertainty on the club’s priorities this summer, with two more players added to an attack that scored 71 goals last season; while Rodgers desire for 20 more league goals is an obvious one, care must be taken the renovation of his defence – Liverpool’s biggest issue last season – is not left short.

But the biggest uncertainty is just why they have been signed at all. This is no negative reflection on either player, particularly the 20-year-old Alberto, who is thought to have endless potential. Yet the arrival of two more players capable of lining up across the front three, and with the pursuit of Henrikh Mkhitaryan still ongoing, questions are asked on the future of others currently at the club.

Stewart Downing, as workmanlike as he was last season, may look over his shoulder with worry. Jonjo Shelvey, a walking warning to Alberto of how potential must be supplemented, may also be a candidate to leave. Raheem Sterling and Suso, who played far too much at the start of last season, could potentially be loaned elsewhere for a season.

Such dealings, though conjecture at this point, make sense given the remit set by the ownership. The squad’s average age would be lowered, likewise wages, while the development of Sterling and Suso would continue elsewhere for a year. It would leave seven or eight players vying for three or four first-team places.

But everything, as it has been and will continue to be all summer, hangs upon the volatility of Luis Suarez, he of the most volatile nature. The Uruguayan keeps talking to Real Madrid via the South American media, but the Spanish club are yet to reciprocate. While the hope will be that the duo will compliment Suarez, there is a real possibility they are part of the plan to replace him.

With the club not having European football to lure such talent and the squad needing to be swelled, the likelihood is any money generated by any Suarez sale would be used to purchase three or four players rather than a direct replacement worth £50 million upwards. Alberto and Aspas may be the beginning of such movement. Arsenal would testify to the danger of such juggling, with their decision to replace Robin van Persie with Santi Cazorla, Lukas Podolski and Olivier Giroud not as successful as they hoped.

That is what ultimately will judge the signings of Aspas and Alberto once the transfer window closes. In a team that has benefited with Coutinho’s technique on the ball, and a style of play that relies on players comfortable in possession, the arrival of two players raised in an environment where technical ability is king is something of note. But Liverpool will hope they play alongside Suarez, not instead of him; unfortunately for Rodgers, it may not be his choice.

If Suarez does stay, questions remain on who will make way for the pair; if Suarez remains at Anfield, worries persist as to whether too many changes are being made to an attacking formula that worked so well in the second half of last season. Those questions and worries, and all that uncertainty, will only subside if both Aspas and Alberto live up to the club’s exalted expectations quickly. If they are unfamiliar with pressure, now is the time to be acquainted with it, for this will be a season full of it, whether unfair or not.

Originally posted Kristian Walsh on ESPN Blogs.

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Southampton 3 – 1 Liverpool: A Stylistic Regression.

A rain-soaked St Mary’s was the venue as Liverpool’s superb recent form was placed into some perspective by a vibrant and energetic Southampton side. The south coast club matched Brendan Rodgers’ Reds across the park and deserved a victory that propels them out of the relegation battle and into the relative safety of the lower-mid table.

For Liverpool, it was a game that raised questions regarding Rodgers’ team selection. Crucially, Lucas was dropped for Joe Allen – a move that left the side vulnerable in the space between midfield and defence. Lucas had been superb since returning from injury, frequently registering the highest number of interceptions and tackles from his colleagues in red.

Perhaps Joe Allen’s crucial role last week in the win over Spurs, when he came on and settled the side during a turbulent opening to the second side, was enough to convince the manager that he was ready to face Mauricio Pochettino’s Saints. Liverpool fans will be wondering how a player who is destined for shoulder surgery in the near future is able to compete for ninety minutes against a side who have much to play for – not least their Premier League status.

Conversely, in defence of Rodgers, Lucas may have warranted a rest. He’d been a regular since returning to the side; it’s only natural that a midfielder with his energy and focus would need a break after such a prolonged absence.

From Liverpool’s perspective, the first goal was the culmination of poor focus and a lack of closing down; avoidable to say the least. Three opportunities to get tighter to Southampton players were missed as Gaston Ramirez, Jay Rodgriguez and, crucially, Morgan Schneiderlin, peeled off their markers and combined to deliver the first goal. Enrique was slow to close Ramirez, a player who floats between the lines and is capable of creating off his left foot. At the very least, the Spanish left back should’ve worked harder to put the Uruguayan onto his weaker right side thus closing the angle for the switch pass.

Glen Johnson was caught ball watching as he tucked inside to cover Martin Skrtel. Credit must go to the rejuvenated and impressive Jay Rodriguez, for it was his movement wider that enabled him to knock down for Schneiderlin to delicately finish. Perhaps Skrtel could’ve got tighter; rust was certainly evident in the Slovaks game throughout the afternoon.

Southampton’s second was far less culpable from Liverpool’s perspective. Rickie Lambert’s free-kick, though well struck, was deflected in by Daniel Sturridge. Brad Jones was wrong footed and the Saints enjoyed a piece of luck that changed the mentality of the away side and propelled the home side into the ascendancy.

An overly critical pundit may point to the concession of the free kick – a needless, rash challenge by Martin Skrtel, who climbed all over Liverpool-born Southampton front man, Lambert. Danger was scarce – the ball was over thirty yards away from Jones’ goal. At worst Lambert would control, back to goal and bring in a team-mate. With Gerrard and Allen covering, Skrtel could/should have executed more thought.

Liverpool’s glimmer of hope arrived in the dying minutes of the first half as Coutinho’s well worked goal restored belief. Well worked, may be an overstatement however the move, especially in the final five/six touches was punctuated by intelligent movement and men in the box. Liverpool have been criticized at times for not committed enough men into the opposition area, however Coutinho’s goal saw Gerrard, the Brazilian, Sturridge and Downing all occupy the Southampton area.

Gerrard’s movement, similar to Rodriguez for the first goal, was the key to Suarez opening up play from deeper. After a couple of efforts by Coutinho and Sturridge, the former Inter man was on hand to slot home the loose ball. Credit goes to the man Saints boss Pocchetino coached last season as he waited in space for the rebound and finished well in a crowded six yard box.

The hope soon turned to resignation as Jay Rodriguez’s fine solo effort consigned the Reds to a crucial league defeat that all but ended their hope of a Champions League finish.

The goal was punctuated by a lack of closing down once again, and leadership, in Liverpool’s defence. Lucas was too far from play to impact Rodriguez’s first twenty yards with the ball so it should’ve fallen to Johnson or Skrtel to step out and close down. Frustratingly for Liverpool fans, both backed off and granted the former Burnley striker a clear run on goal.

While his initial shot was parried by Jones, he gratefully accepted the second chance. It was reminiscent of timid goals the Reds were conceding earlier in the season as the opposition found space in central areas ahead of the defence and drove at speed. While Lucas has greatly impacted in this regard, the defence needed to offer him some assistance and close down the move. It begs the question; would he have been afforded such space if Carragher was playing? At the very least the soon-to-retire centre half would’ve broken up play with the concession of a free-kick or standing up of the striker.

Replays show that Agger was playing to cover his right side who he believed would step out. He came across to sweep, anticipating a defender closing down Rodriguez; frustratingly, it never happened.

In the simplest break-down, it was a game lost on the quality of passing in the final third. The Liverpool performance was littered with misplaced passes, poor decision-making and a lack of creativity. Key players such as Coutinho, Suarez and Gerrard were not at their best and will rue missed opportunities to open up a notoriously shaky Southampton back line.

The graphics below depict all the passes from the game, by both sides. It delivers a stark contrast between the areas of passing. While Southampton’s is evenly spread around the pitch, a mark of their ability to go long when required thus stretch the game and bring in Lambert, Liverpool’s is focused largely around midfield in their own half. Perhaps this is why Steven Gerrard touched the ball 62 times, a full 15 times more than anyone else on the pitch. For Liverpool, play was too sideways.

      

It was a notable regression from recent games where the fluidity of movement and speed of play was palpable.

The notion of Southampton controlling the game in the key areas is evident in the following stats. Liverpool managed to complete 57/107 passes in the final third. Compare that with Southampton who managed a staggering 111/174 possible passes. In the key areas ahead of the Liverpool defence and in the narrow, inside channels, the likes of Lallana, Rodriguez and Rickie Lambert were precise, sharp and intelligent in their play.

Lallana was, in fact, a handful for the Reds throughout the game and our choice for man of the match. He linked up play brilliantly with 88% pass accuracy. Lucas may have countered his threat with his ability to read the game and intercept, however Allen and Gerrard were clearly out-thought in the midfield battle.

Lallana perhaps best summed up the differences between the two teams on the day. He only passed the ball 34 times; 28 times less than Gerrard. However the majority of these were in the final third and he provided 6 crosses for Lambert and Rodriguez to attack. He retained Southampton’s purpose and helped distort the Liverpool shape.

It wasn’t all doom and gloom for the Merseysider’s however. Glen Johnson’s performance was a notable exclusion. While he should’ve been tighter on the first goal, he was Liverpool’s most potent attacking threat, providing 4 key passes that led to 2 clear-cut chances. He also took the most touches and provided the most accurate crosses with 50%. Furthermore he won the most tackles and ground duels against a youthful Southampton left side that included Luke Shaw and a drifting Lallana.

For Liverpool there’ll need to be a greater emphasis on playing with purpose. The Reds, much like in the days of Rafa Benitez, look at their best when they attack with speed and play at pace. Too often against Southampton, their play mirrored the inconsistency of the first half of the season. They lacked verve and directness.

This isn’t to say the system deployed by Rodgers is a failure. On the contrary, it’s progressive and offers creative freedom. But with that freedom comes the responsibility to movement intelligently and speed up the transition. Against Swansea, the 5-0 victory, the reds were playing on the counter at 5/6 metres per second. Against Southampton it was 3m/s. The speed of play allowed the home side to reorganize thus double up on Suarez and deny Coutinho the chance to create inside on his right foot.

The signs are still bright for the Anfield club and consistency is a notoriously hard skill to master. However with added purpose, time and leadership, they will inevitably consign results such as this one to history. That remains the hope of the supporters at least. Most are fortunate to witness a fearsome Liverpool side when they play with intensity and tempo.

Originally posted bythesefootball times on EPL Index.

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Shoot On Sight? In-Depth Shot Analysis.

When it comes to total shots, per game, Liverpool have racked up more than any other team in Europe. That equates to five more than Barcelona, every single match. Only Juventus, Real Madrid and Tottenham come close to the Reds.

(Data correct up until the 1st March 2013)

At home this season, Liverpool average 23 shots per game according to Who Scored and rank top of all the teams in Europe’s major leagues. Manchester United ranks a lowly 22nd with 16.2 shots per game at Old Trafford; however, Ferguson’s team have collected 36 out of 39 points (92% of points available or 2.76 points per game) whereas Rodgers’ Liverpool won just 24 out of 42 points at Anfield (57% or 1.71ppg). The same trend is true away from home.

There was also another stat, read to me by Paul after the Swansea match, that claimed we had more attempts on goal (or shots) in that one match (35) than any other team in any other game, in Europe’s major leagues this season. Quite an achievement, even if we only get three points, and Laudrup did rest his defence and top scorer. My shock was compounded the next day, when completing the stats round-up I discovered Liverpool had 22 attempts in the first half and only 13 in the second. My perception was the other way round. I thought we controlled the game first half, and battered them in the second. So I thought I’d take a closer look. Watch the game again and take a screenshot at the moment each shot was taken. Then try and decide if this was the best option at the time. I was going to look at various shots, from various games but after watching the game again, I’m fairly confident this small sample, from one match, in one season, provides enough evidence to at least address some of the more persistent problems Liverpool have been having when it comes to taking the right shot, at the right time. It’s useless topping the shots on goal table, if you’re converting less than anyone else in the league.

I think we’ll discover a number of occasions when taking a shot on goal was the wrong option, just to lay my bias on the table from the beginning. I’ve been frustrated by this issue for over 18 months now. We seem to control games, have many more attempts on goal, but still continue to be wildly inconsistent in terms of results. It will also provide a little insight into the fascinating world of manual stat collection, and how the definitions can be tricky. I counted nine Clear Cut Chances, Opta counted six. That will also be added to the poll, to see if we fans think differently to the professionals.

Each shot slide will have the name of the scorer, the result of the shot (on target, off target, blocked), is it a Clear Cut Chance or not and my own answer to the simple question: should he shoot? I’ve kept it as simple as possible because there are so many different factors that go into the decision to shoot. Primarily, is it a clear instruction from the manager to shoot on sight? Next, do you see a better option? Either trying to beat a defender or pass to a team mate, in that split second? Finally, are you a selfish player? There are more, and it could be a number of factors working together at the same time. Nevertheless, I’d rather stick to one option for each slide and poll. Although I will expand on a few of them (particularly the shots that shouldn’t have been taken), the specific job of weighing up the various options each player had (with a degree of credibility), in each scenario, is one for the ex-strikers in the comments section to explore. I was a goalkeeper; I didn’t have ‘vision’ and nor was I ever clinical.

Before we look at the first slide, here are the definitions for all the different metrics that will be considered during this analysis:

From OptaSportsPro

Shot on target

Any goal attempt that:

1)      Goes into the net

2)      Would have gone into the net but for being stopped by the goalkeeper

3)      Would have gone into the net but for being stopped by a defender who is the last man.

Shot off target

Any goal attempt where the ball is going wide of the target, misses the goal or hits the woodwork.

Blocked Shot

Any goal attempt heading roughly on target toward goal which is blocked by a defender, where there are other defenders or a goalkeeper behind the blocker.

Big Chances/Clear Cut Chances

A situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score usually in a one-on-one scenario or from very close range.

Liverpool’s shots against Swansea, at Anfield, on 18/02/13

 First up our new Brazilian talent Coutinho, on his home debut, with just a minute on the clock. There are eight players between him and the goal, and that’s not including Sturridge or Vorm. Downing is free (don’t laugh) but this will also drag the Swansea players over, freeing up the three Liverpool players stood in a bunch. However, this is the problem analysing with hindsight and trying to predict what would have happened. That’s impossible. We can only speculate. Put yourself in Coutinho’s flair-filled boots for a second, and imagine being shown this image after the game. Would he agree with me? Should he pass, or turn inside? Or would he stick to his guns and say he’s happy with his decision? If Suarez was stood there instead of Downing, does that make any difference?

In the stats, Coutinho has had one shot, but it doesn’t impact on his own shooting accuracy or conversion rate, because the shot was blocked. It is also recorded in the total shots for the team.

 

The corner is floated in, it looks perfect, and it even looks planned from Gerrard. Downing looks set to “put his laces through the ball” before the Swansea defender tries to head it away, missing the ball, but putting poor Stewart off his stride and making the volley look like a decent return in a game of tennis-football, a lame lob, out for a goal kick. That’s my excuse anyway.

Tough one. At first glance I thought he could have squared it for Coutinho, who was free in the middle. Then watching the action from a different angle, I’m not sure it was an option. One other issue is the Swansea keeper Vorm, who appears to be anticipating a cross from Suarez. The end result was a save, as the shot was straight at the goalie.

It’s on his favoured side to curl it around the defenders closing him down, into the far corner. Or strike it and hope for a fortunate deflection. I just don’t think it’s a high percentage attempt. And surely, that’s what we should be aiming for? If Manchester United can take 7 less shots than us per match (on average), but still win every single game, bar one (and in that they scored twice) at home in the league, then they must be waiting for better opportunities. They must be creating chances or shots that have a greater chance of scoring. It can never be an exact science, and the ability of their players must be the key factor. But surely part of that ability is deciding it’s not a good time to shoot. To wait, pass it to a teammate and run in behind, or even recycle backwards and drag your marker away from the centre. It might sound harsh, it might sound ridiculous to some, but we need to stop shooting from distance when opposition players are clearly in the way. (Unless your name is Suarez, from a free kick, in the Europa League, at Anfield.)

This is similar to Downing’s earlier effort. Too speculative, and don’t get me wrong they are brilliant when they fly into the net, but the chances of that happening are slim. I’d much rather Sturridge waited to take advantage of his superior finishing skills closer to the goal. Still, it was blocked and went for a corner. But was the shot worth the risk? Not for me. The ends don’t justify the means. Although, I accept there is a stronger case than for Downing’s earlier attempt; Sturridge’s superior ability, fewer men forward, it could deflect off the keeper and into Suarez’s path, it could go in.

You have to trust your wide forward, on his stronger foot, to shoot from this position. A clearer sight on goal, players waiting to pounce in the box, or latch onto a miss hit shot that’s sliced along the floor.

Shame then, he sliced it in the air, over everyone’s head (it nearly went out for a throw-in). You wouldn’t think I had a soft spot for Downing, would you? Based on this game, he didn’t have his shooting boots on. Based on this season, he’s also got a terrible shooting accuracy. My preference, Stewart, is to wait till you’re three yards out and Coutinho’s floated over a perfectly weighted cross for you to put your head on before turning away with your arm up like Alan Shearer.

Because JoeP, during the Zenit second leg, tweeted that a free kick for Suarez from this position “was basically a penalty”. He’s right. He has to shoot. Here’s a great quote from Suarez about Rodgers’ advice, and his own routine and thought processes:

As well as extra hours on the training pitch, Suarez’s ability to navigate both goalkeeper and wall has been aided by some notes from Brendan Rodgers.

“Every player has his own particular skill and technique when taking a free-kick,” said Suarez.

“But sometimes the free-kick might be from a different position, or you might have to study the ‘keeper’s technique when making a save, the position of the wall, whether they jump in the wall, if the defenders are tall and if you can get the ball up and over them.

“The manager is really good at this preparation. Before a game he shows the free-kick takers footage on dead-ball situations and that’s also important.”

No one following up, Coutinho in space to his left, Vorm stood fairly close to his line; ball drops nicely, Suarez can score from 45 yards, no-one has been able to catch him to make a run alongside or in front of him. Again, all of this is subjective, but on balance I think he’d be better off keeping control of the ball and looking for another option.

Another tricky one that I’ve got marked down as a CCC: he’s one v one, close range, and should “reasonably be expected to score”. The timing of his jump is slightly off, and he can’t get his head over the ball to direct it underneath the bar.

Just the keeper to beat, close range, has to shoot, has to score, really. But is it a CCC? It is for me.

Again, very similar to Downing’s earlier that was dragged wide past the near post. Here, Sturridge has one less player in the way to block it. Maybe a quick 1-2 with Suarez? He hits the target, but his shot is straight at Vorm.

We’ve had 14 shots before the half hour mark. Two of them were on target, two of them were CCC’s in my eyes, four of them blocked, six of them inside the box, and eight off target.

Lay it off to Johnson surely? No one is close to him. Lucas gets a decent contact but it’s straight at the keeper. He’s not exactly renowned for 25 yard thunderbolts, although this season his comprehensive shooting record reads: three shots, one on target, two blocked, 100% shooting accuracy. The one above is Lucas’s sole shot on target this campaign. He is, however, renowned for recycling the ball, reading the play, interceptions, covering attacking players, being a thoroughly decent person. Also, play to your strengths, we’ve got 3 on 2 at the back post, if he passes to Johnson and he crosses it first time.

Sturridge is one on one with Vorm, from close range and should reasonably be expected to score. Although if he squares the ball along the ground, it’s a tap-in for Coutinho. I think he’s caught in two minds, kind of ‘dinks’ it over Vorm but in the direction of the Brazilian, only to under hit it and it comes to nothing.

Below is a look at the table of shots from the first half:

In the first half, before we scored, we’d attempted 16 shots on goal. Only three were on target, and five were blocked. Only 37.5% of shots were inside the box, before the penalty. This chimes in nicely with the theory that a teams’ shooting accuracy fluctuates depending on the result at the time, and also that a team takes more speculative efforts when they are level or chasing the game.

Half-time research:

Scoring Efficiency and Current Score by Mark Taylor (on the Opta Pro website)

…The tie appeared remarkable for many reasons. Not only had Chelsea played over half the second leg with just ten men and Messi had missed from the spot, but they had also enjoyed less than twenty percent of the possession and had been out shot by a ratio of 3:1over both legs. They had managed just 3 shots compared to Barca’s 14 in their 1-0 win at Stamford Bridge and had fared only slightly better in going down 16-7 in the return. But as Fernando Torres had so clinically demonstrated in the final minutes of the tie, having the lion’s share of the shots isn’t as important as how efficiently you finish them and Chelsea had outscored the Spanish giants by 3 goals to 2 in the column that mattered most…

Arriving at conclusions on the basis of one game or one incident is usually unwise, but it appeared that Chelsea’s 30% strike rate owed something to the simplicity of the Torres chance and Barcelona’s 7% strike rate was the result of their opponents being able to pack their backline because they had only been behind in the tie for two minutes. Before we can begin to draw wider conclusions we need to work with a larger and more detailed set of results, therefore I’m grateful to Opta for providing a season’s worth of shot statistics for Arsenal from the 2010/11 season:

Efficiency and Frequency of Arsenal’s Shots (2010/11)

Origins and Outcomes of Shots taken by Arsenal in Differing Game Situations (2010/11)

It’s worth keeping all the above in mind before moving on to the shots from the second half. When we were level, we had lots of speculative shots from outside the area. We had very few clear chances. It’s also worth remembering that I’m ignoring the context of the match when deciding if the player should shoot or not. Treating each shot as its own individual, exclusive, event. Looking at the type of shot, the estimated risk/reward scenario and whether or not there were better options open the player shooting. I’m more interested in finding the type of shot we should be avoiding.

So in the second half, we’ve changed from taking 37.5% of our shots inside the area before the goal, to 66% after it. Swansea trying to score, inevitably push more players forward, leaving more gaps at the back; we pick them off and take advantage of easier chances. The difference is clear. And to an extent, it’s obvious. It’s just fascinating to ask the question: why can’t we wait for better chances when we’re level or behind or is it simply because clear chances don’t present themselves when a team is happy to sit back and let you come at them?

Of course he should shoot. Although, it is another tough one to make a clear decision. Initially, I thought he should, but in the more conventional manner by wrapping his foot around the ball and steering it toward goal. However, and I couldn’t get the exact frame for the shot, but it appears the ball from Suarez was just behind him. So the little flick was probably his only option (could he have laid it off for Sturridge?).

Suarez scores. We know he scores and we know it’s a wonderful finish. But look at Sturridge, waiting for a tap-in. Ignoring the result of the shot, ignore the context of the match itself, and weigh up the risk/reward ratio. I’m leaning toward yes, on the assumption most strikers are going to shoot, on instinct. Would Sturridge pass to Suarez in the same spot? I doubt it.

I’ve included every shot from the game, so you can make your own mind. Are you from the ‘shoot on sight’ camp or are you from the ‘Patience Dear Johnson’, shooting from 48 yards is never going to work, especially when you’ve attempted 45 shots (from a variety of positions) this season and only converted one of them (3% chance conversion) camp? That’s more shots – this season – than Mata, Cisse, Andy Carroll, Dempsey, Hazard, Lampard, Grant Holt and Shane Long. If your chance conversion rate is no better than 1 in 45, pass it. That’d be a good starting point.

Full Time Research: 

Luis Suarez: Stuck in the middle, from one of my favourite blogs, ’2+2=11′ by TTT subscriber WillGM. 

The first thing to note about the goals Suárez scores is that across both seasons, the vast majority of his goals come from relatively central areas within the penalty area or just on the edge of it. Furthermore, we can see that Suárez appears to shoot a lot from locations where he doesn’t generally score from.

There is more data available, across a sample of 15,000 Premier League shots. The football blog ‘differentgame’ put together the Shot Position Average Model (SPAM). Here’s the results, although they take a slightly different approach to Will, and reduce the number of sections down to six: penalty area central, penalty area right, penalty area left, outside the penalty area, direct free-kicks and penalties.

Penalty Conversion Rate (CR): 1 in 1.35

Direct Free-Kick (CR): 1 in 20

Penalty Area Central (CR):  1 in 6

Penalty Area Right (CR): 1 in 19

Penalty Area Left (CR): 1 in 19

Outside the Penalty Area (CR): 1 in 33

If we now match this up against Liverpool’s last four matches (Wigan away, Swansea home, WBA home and Man City away) and plot each shot we’ve attempted (using Will’s method as a rough guideline) and calculate a conversion rate, we can see a similar pattern emerging.

As you can see, even with such a small sample of four games, we still generally only score when we shoot from central areas. No goals whatsoever from any other area. Here’s a breakdown of the numbers.

As a team, our conversion over the last four games is better than our season average. Even with the WBA performance. All the evidence points to waiting till you’re in a central area before taking a shot. I would add a caveat of making sure you have a clear (ish) sight at goal.

Post-Match Analysis:

Everyone’s favourite comparison: Liverpool vs. Manchester United

As we’ve already established, racking up the number of total shots we attempt isn’t in doubt. We’re the kings of shooting, the dominant force in the world of needless, wasted opportunities. What about Shots on Target?

Again fairly even across the last few seasons. So what is it that accounts for the discrepancy in points totals? The next two graphs should go some way to answering that question. They’re, quite simply, more clinical than us. We have more shots, the shots on target are virtually identical, but as we move towards shooting accuracy and chance conversion, we can see the difference.

As we can see, Man Utd have had a higher shooting accuracy in every season apart from in the Hodgson/Dalglish season. Without having the detailed data to analyse where Man Utd shoot from, and if it”s markedly or even subtlety different to ours, it’s hard to know for sure if they shoot from more central areas, do they wait and pass? Do they pick the ‘right’ option more than we do? Or, are their players just better at shooting, than ours?

Finally, the gaping hole in our team. Converting chances. Look at the difference. It’s basically why they win the league, and we don’t even challenge. The last time we challenged, we virtually matched them. Since then, they have soared upwards whereas we have had to watch game after game of Barn Door Challenge.

As is the TTT way, this is to start the debate, not come to definitive conclusions. I hope I’ve presented the data, as well as the detail. The macro and the micro to feast over and analyse. Personally, I think we can cut out all shots from outside the area that are not central. That would be a start. Otherwise, I’m very optimistic we’re moving in the right direction. Attacking players with a variety of complimentary skills. Hopefully they can all add ‘decision-making’ to that list and realise when it’s the right time to take a shot. Not, just shoot, on sight.

Further Reading: 

Premier League Goalscoring Patterns – EPL Index

They Shoot, They Score, But Should Less be More? – The Woolster

And here’s some analysis by Andrew Beasley on TTT in the subscriber only comment section (No trolls!). Make sure you check out his brilliant blog: http://basstunedtored.com/

Using the data on WhoScored, we can see how many shots per game both teams average from each part of the pitch:

	6 yard box	6-18 yards	Outside Box
MUFC	11%	58%	31%
Shots Per Game	1.8	9.5	5.1
LFC	5%	50%	45%
Shots Per Game	1.2	11.5	10.4

Straight away you can see that we have five shots more than them from outside the box every home match, and as they only have a 1/44 chance of being scored, that’s five shots down the drain right there (and almost half of our total shots, in fact).

You have demonstrated that we only seem to score from shooting centrally – WhoScored also have shot direction info. 62% of ours have been from the middle, and only 3 teams in the PL have a lower proportion. United on the other hand fire in 71% of their shots from the middle.

We also have the worst shooting accuracy at home in the league this season. No prizes for guessing who is top 

Team	Shots pg	Shots OT pg	Shot Accuracy
Manchester United	16.4	6.3	38.4%
Reading	9.1	3.4	37.4%
Everton	17.6	6.5	36.9%
West Ham	13.6	4.9	36.0%
Manchester City	17.9	6.2	34.6%
Swansea	16.6	5.7	34.3%
Arsenal	18.4	6.2	33.7%
Newcastle United	17.3	5.8	33.5%
Fulham	15.4	5.1	33.1%
Chelsea	19.2	6.3	32.8%
Stoke	11.3	3.7	32.7%
Tottenham	21.5	7	32.6%
Wigan	14	4.4	31.4%
Queens Park Rangers	14.9	4.6	30.9%
Sunderland	13.3	4.1	30.8%
Norwich	12.8	3.9	30.5%
Southampton	15.1	4.6	30.5%
West Bromwich Albion	15.5	4.7	30.3%
Aston Villa	11.6	3.5	30.2%
Liverpool	23	6.8	29.6%

Finally, in case you haven’t seen it, I have plotted a graph showing our average points-per-game based on how many shots on target we have had since August 2010:

http://public.tableausoftware.com/views/LFCPPGbySoTsinceAug2010/Sheet1

8 is a bit of an anomaly, but otherwise the trend is both obvious and apparent. We need more shots on target!

Originally posted on Sports Analysis.

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Rodgers and the Barcelona Model.

This is based on the very simple premise that Rodgers wants to gradually turn this Liverpool side into a team which plays like Barcelona.

The best team in the world during his formative years as a coach has been Barcelona.  They embody the style of football that he loves and preaches.  He has spent time at their academy, studying how they teach and play the game.  He sets his teams up in a similar ‘formation’ (insofar as formations actually mean anything in modern football).  He asks his teams to press like Barcelona do, and wants them to win the ball back within 7 seconds – just like Barcelona.  And he (ideally) wants them to pass as Barcelona do – quick, mainly short.  He calls Joe Allen his ‘Xavi’.  I imagine, behind the scenes, he thinks of Suarez as his ‘Messi’.  He prefers small technical players to big powerful ones.

He tried to get his Swansea teams to play like Barcelona.

And now, in my opinion, he wants to do the same thing at Liverpool, only with superior players.

So, what does this mean – practically – for where we are going with this team?

Recently, as Rodgers has started to bed down his philosophy at the club, the team has started to have a fairly settled look to it.  Rodgers’ idea of his strongest XI right now is something like:

——————————Reina——————————

Johnson———–Carragher————Agger—————Enrique

————————————-Lucas———————–

——————–Gerrard————————————–

—————————–Suarez——————————

—Downing——————————————–Coutinho—

—————————-Sturridge—————————–

The formation overview is (as noted here in an excellent article by Lee Mooney)

————————–Sweeper Keeper——————————

Attacking full back——Ball winner——Ball player——–Attacking full back

————————————-Destroyer————————

——————–Mediano——————————————

—————————Second striker——————————

—Winger/Forward————————————Winger/Forward—

——————————Striker———————————-

With that in mind, I have a few thoughts about where BR is going with this team:

** First, Reina is the perfect keeper for Rodgers.  He may not be having his best season right now, but unless someone offers silly money, or he wants to leave, I’d be very surprised if Pepe goes.  Fully expect Rodgers to want to sign some genuine competition for him though, as Brad Jones, reasonable back up though he is, does not push Reina hard for his 1st team place and that perhaps shows.

** Glen Johnson and Jose Enrique fit Rodgers’ model very well indeed.  They are both superb coming forwards, and have the pace and energy to get right up and down the flanks just like the best Barcelona defenders.  We may need some cover for Enrique on the left, with only the very raw Robinson (who needs some time out on loan, surely) as genuine back up for Enrique and Johnson all too often re-deployed and blunted somewhat in an attacking sense on the left when Enrique is not fit.

** Agger is another player who is ‘perfect’ for Rodgers.  He is our ball playing centre half.  Our Pique.  He will stay and he will thrive in this system.

** Skrtel, however, will not.  He lacks the skill to play in a Barcelona-type possession-based system where the defence hold a high line, and lacks the composure to avoid making mistakes when we are otherwise in control.  He’s a defender that would fit in better at Stoke than at Liverpool.  That’s not to say he’s not a very good defender – he is.  But he is much more effective sitting deep than high up the pitch.  Had he not fallen out with Rodgers so spectactularly of late, he might still be in the team…but his long term prospects are bleak.  We will surely sell and replace in the summer.

** Sticking on the central defence, as with Barcelona, it would not surprise me at all to see a few surprises being sprung with players we think of as midfielders being asked to play at centre back at times, particularly against weaker teams.   Lucas must be a possibility to play there at some point.  But the player who I would pick out as the most likely to be experimented with is – perhaps somewhat controversially – a certain Mr Gerrard.  See further below.

** Moving into the midfield, we have Lucas as the destroyer, breaking up the play as Yaya Toure and Mascherano have so often been asked to do for Barcelona.  As Rodgers’ team gets better at pressing, and better at ball retention (which will come partly with training, partly with better ‘technical’ players coming in) I think we will see Lucas rested on occasions, and perhaps Gerrard/Allen will play there much as Busquets does for Barcelona half the time.  But at this stage in our development, we need Lucas there for stability.  And we will likely always need that against the best teams in the land.

** In the more advanced central midfield positions, this is where I think we’ll see Rodgers make some changes this summer.  Probably much to everyone’s surprise as I think we all look at our surplus of central midfielders (Lucas, Gerrard, Allen, Henderson, Shelvey, Suso) and players who can play there if asked (Suarez, Coutinho, even Downing) and think this is an area of great strength, and probably that we are overstocked.  My view here comes back to the point I made at the beginning – our model is Barcelona.  And Barcelona, in these positions, in their strongest XI, play with either (i) Busquets / Xavi (if Mascherano is holding) or (ii) Xavi and Iniesta.  Most persuasively, a substantial part of Barcelona’s dominance over recent times has been built around the Xavi/Iniesta axis.  Rodgers, I believe, will want his own Xavi/Iniesta axis to emerge.

** In my opinion, Rodgers has now signed one part of this axis – his future ‘Iniesta’ figure, in Coutinho.  Similar to Iniesta, Coutinho can play attacking left forward.  Or he can also drop back to be an attacking left midfielder.  He’s also outrageously talented, uber-comfortable on the ball, and knows where the goal is.

** His Xavi is still missing though.  Rodgers may have commented earlier in the season that Joe Allen can be his Xavi.  But lets be serious – Joe Allen, even on his very best day, is not Xavi, and does not even resemble Xavi in his style of play.  Joe Allen is of course Busquets, not Xavi!

** So where is Brendan’s Xavi?  At the moment, to my mind, it’s Gerrard.  And Gerrard is, of course, utterly brilliant in this position.  He drives us forward, he creates chances, he scores goals, and he generally has run the game against some of the weaker teams we’ve played recently. But here’s the “but”.  He. Is. Not. Xavi-esque.  To borrow a phrase from old whisky nose at Old Trafford, there is, and will be, no “carousel” which the opposition are forced to ride leaving them feeling dizzy with Gerrard in the team.  That’s not a criticism, just an observation.  But for me, it drives what I think we’ll see Rodgers look for this summer – a new player to be his future Xavi.

** This ties into recent rumours from very reliable journalists linking us with Christian Eriksen, who is probably the best young player in Europe in the ‘Xavi’ mould.  It would be no surprise to see us go for him this summer and, whilst it might be a long shot if we don’t have CL football to offer, I’m sure the club will have a list of alternative targets in mind for this role and I’m convinced we will move for someone in this mould and try to build a partnership between this ‘Xavi’ and Coutinho that will take us that much closer to Rodgers’ ideals of possession play and carousels.

** What then, for Gerrard?  Well, he will still have a huge role in the team.  With Coutinho so young, and any ‘Xavi’ we bring in also likely to be (i) from overseas; and (ii) a relative youngster, Gerrard will continue to get a lot of game time .  He can also cover for Lucas, when required.  But the twist that I think we may see once Rodgers’ Xavi/Iniesta duo start to really settle down in the team is that Gerrard may well be played at centre back from time to time.  This probably seems like a bit of a left-field piece of crystal ball gazing, but he has the height and pace to be able to be brilliant in the role.  And he is capable of stepping out from the back and doing the most amazing things with the ball.  You heard it here first.  He will need to learn to be very disciplined though…so the transition to playing this role against anything other than the weakest teams may take some time.  But, if you think about it, there is some real merit in the idea – and it could save us some money if we only need to sign one centre back this summer, despite Skrtel/Carra/Coates seemingly all on the way out.  (Kelly/Wisdom will provide further cover)

** If the above comes off as I anticipate, then I think we’ll see Suarez much more rarely used as the second striker, and far more often playing as either a wide forward or as the first striker, in Messi’s ‘false 9’ role.  Most likely it will be the ‘new Xavi’ or Coutinho playing in the second striker position.

** I think we will also see Rodgers try to sign at least one more winger/forward this summer.  Almost certainly someone who can provide a goal threat from these positions, but also who can play the technical possession based game that he wants. Ben Arfa is mentioned in the Tony Barratt piece linked above, which would make sense but would be very difficult I imagine unless they are really very desperate for Carroll.  But it’s less about the who and more about the type of player for me.  That Rodgers is interested (according to this reliable journo) tells us what type of player is shortlisted here.  It’s his Sanchez/Pedro type player, and explains why we apparently retained an interest in Tom Ince despite signing Coutinho.

** I don’t believe that Downing fits the model and expect him to be sold, his recent praiseworthy good form notwithstanding.  He is working hard, and has contributed much to some recent good team performances.  But there’s a reason why Rodgers jettisoned Downing so quickly at Liverpool; he doesn’t suit the system we want to play.

** Sturridge will be our Villa/Eto’o.  He will probably most frequently play through the middle, but sometimes he will play wide.  Sometimes he will be benched whilst Suarez plays as the false 9.  Suarez, as our Messi, will likely always take precedence in the team over Sturridge who will have to play wherever Suarez is not.  Much like Villa’s subordination to Messi at Barcelona.

** So, in summary, I think this summer we’ll target as priorities: (i) a Xavi; (ii) a new centre-back; and (iii) at least one wide-forward, if not two.  We may also try to sign a back up keeper and some cover at left back.  I do not think we will sign another striker – Suarez, Sturridge and Borini are enough, and our wide-forwards will be players who are quick and know where the goal is.

** As well as Downing departing, I also expect we may see Henderson, Shelvey, Skrtel and Coates all being sold.  I imagine the idea of selling Henderson and Shelvey may be controversial in some quarters, and it’s possible we might keep one or both as back-ups.  But I’m just not sure that they really fit Rodgers’ model, and I can see them being sold to generate funds for other signings.  Shelvey would unlikely tolerate another season as a back-up anyway, given some of the quotes attributed to him recently, while Henderson will be way back in the pecking order if it’s a battle between Lucas/Allen/Gerrard/’the Xavi’/Coutinho for those midfield slots.  Suso is a far better ‘back up’ for BR’s system.

** I think we will see Rodgers team – next season – increasingly moving away from any sort of long ball, direct, style of play, of the sort at times utilised against Spurs on Sunday.  Partly out of necessity, and partly as a result of the resources available, we don’t yet try to play ‘tiki taka’ football all the time.  But it’s coming.  The signs are there already:

But we don’t yet have the players for it bedded in.  To my mind, though, it’s a certainty that this is where Rodgers will want to take us.

Originally posted by scottishRED on Red and White Kop.

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The Importance Of The Europa League And A Look At Zenit.

Humiliated in a shock FA Cup result, out of the Capital One Cup and scrapping for fourth place in the Premier League; Liverpool must take the Europa League with the utmost seriousness. It is the only trophy that the rather recent Kings of Europe still have a realistic chance of winning this season.  Rodgers’ men haven’t been handed an easy route to the last 16 either, coming up against the Russian champions Zenit St Petersburg in the last 32. As a seeded team, the Reds will start with an away leg at the 2008 UEFA Cup winners, coming up this Thursday.  With a number of prestigious names still in the competition, Liverpool would do well to advance as far as they can to prove they are still very much on the European scene.

While it lacks the glamour and status of the Champions League, the Europa League is still a widely respected competition. With the anomaly of the FA Cup tie at Oldham, Liverpool’s recent form continues to impress. Although the painful reality remains that they still haven’t beaten a side in the top half of the Premier League this season (a win vs West Brom would however, erase this stat), Liverpool have emerged from two testing away contests unbeaten, with arguably their two best performances of the season and should have won both. It is clear that Rodgers is beginning to mould a team capable of competing with the Premier League’s elite. They have Champions League qualification in their sights and this is why the Europa League holds much importance.

If – and that is a very big “if” – Rodgers manages to secure fourth place this season, progressing in this years Europa League will stand the club in a much stronger position for the 2013/14 season. Even if they don’t manage the heights of the top four this season, a decent run in Europa League would aid Liverpool’s transfer situation enormously. FSG’s hesitation in the transfer market would be alleviated while players would surely be more attracted to a club competing with top teams in Europe and on the up. Not to mention the fact that if we were to win the competition it may well cement the scintillating Luis Suarez’s claims that he wants to continue to keep playing for “the club of his dreams”.

It is certainly not impossible for Liverpool to win the Europa League, however, having qualified via the Champions League before Christmas, Zenit St Petersburg lie ahead. Zenit currently lie third in the league table with 38 points from 19 matches, five behind leaders CSKA Moscow. They must not be undermined. They secured a famous victory at the San Siro in the final game of their Champions League campaign to secure Europa League qualification with the ever artful Danny curling the ball past Abbiati, the AC Milan goalkeeper,  brilliantly to put Spalletti’s men in command. Hulk will almost definitely be involved and although the former Chelsea target has had a turbulent first half of the season scoring just three goals in 11 league matches for Zenit, he is a constant danger and Liverpool’s often shaky defence must cut out the costly mistakes in order to keep the Brazilian at bay. Axel Witsel – one of Zenit’s huge summer signings along with Hulk – is their most influential midfielder. The Belgian is a certain goal threat and Liverpool’s trio of midfielders need to be wary. Zenit may well play with a deep backline which can prove frustrating for opponents – as AC Milan found when they began to shoot desperately from range. Rodgers will be aware of this but Liverpool are beginning to show the signs of a sleek attacking unit and with Suarez’s mesmeric form, they will be able to cope. Sturridge and Coutinho are both ineligible so Raheem Sterling will surely have a role to play. Although he has not been at his best recently, this is a good chance for him and adding his pace to his repertoire of step-overs and shimmies, along with Downing’s resurgence, the Liverpool front three have the potential to exploit the Zenit back four.

A draw in Russia would be seen as a very good result. Anfield is no stranger to all-important European games at home and February 21st could see the return of the famous atmosphere from the Kop. Of course it is a tough task, but if Liverpool can overcome the Russians, they can overcome anyone else in the competition and if Liverpool are in a strong position when at home in the second leg, there should be no problems for a team only growing in confidence. Unfortunately, going away to Zenit St Petersburg may be hard for some Liverpool players for non-footballing reasons. A Zenit supporters’ group called for all non-white players to be excluded from the team saying that black players are “forced down their throat”. It is quite amazing that this goes on, however it should hopefully give Rodgers’ men more of an incentive to go and beat the hostility they may come up against.

Brendan Rodgers certainly didn’t come into a club on the march, but he is beginning to stamp his authority on the Anfield outfit and it is clearly showing. By progressing in the Europa League, it will only help him and Liverpool send out a meaningful message to the rest of Europe. A clash with Chelsea remains a possibility in further rounds and we all know what that means when it comes to European ties – huge rivalry and a fantastic two legs, something that Liverpool have missed and should look forward to because Rodgers’ new dimension is becoming a threat. It remains a period of transition for Liverpool but setting their sights on an elusive run in the Europa League is a must.

Originally posted by Frank Sale on ‘The Bib Theorists’

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Daniel Sturridge: The Missing Link.

A real exciting one for the football club; one that will be terrific here I’m sure and the supporters will absolutely love him.        -Brendan Rodgers in July 2012

Liverpool fans fervently anticipated the arrival of that ‘exciting’ player. The rumour mills worked their magic, false hopes dawned among the supporters but as any other season, we waited in vain. While Borini failed to impress, Allen’s impact subsided as the season progressed and Sahin was another one of those peculiar Liverpool signings (joining a long list). It took more than six months and two transfer windows for Liverpool to finally grab that exciting man. Daniel Sturridge has been a revelation of sorts. Early indications are in tune with Rodgers’ comments in the summer.

Denied opportunities at Chelsea despite impressive performances, played out of position and overlooked by 3-4 managers, Sturridge walked a thin line many young Englishman have done in the past – a Wayne Rooney or a Jermaine Pennant?

His arrival was largely welcomed at Anfield with supporters desperately crying for a striker. There were a few though that remained hostile. A few were left dreaming of Huntelaar and Llorente thus Daniel Sturridge seemed a significant step down. However, the former Manchester City youngster has done what very few Liverpool signings have managed to do – have an instant impact. It’s still early days but a return of four goals in five games is something that any striker would be proud of. It isn’t his goals though that make him so important for the side; it’s what he brings to the game, the approach alters, and the entire team is able to perform better (or differently).

What Liverpool have lacked since the departure of a certain Spaniard is a typical centre forward to stay up top or run off the last defender. Carroll was meant to do that but his lack of mobility and preference to the aerial game just wouldn’t fit into Rodgers’ system, neither did it work with the King before him. With this hollow space in the attacking third, Liverpool failed to have a man over in the oppositions box. Suarez dropped deep and thrived in doing so, while the midfielders were hesitant to move forward.

The failings of this approach were obvious. The play was quick, the ball move swiftly and often smoothly from defence to attack, but in the deeper attacking positions, the play failed to move forward and hit a stumbling block. The ball would move too quickly from the back, so quickly that the attacking players failed to get into position quickly enough. When the ball is played up from the defence into the midfield, the first thing players look for is a striker to come into the game, without a centre forward Liverpool failed to do this. And hence the play was delayed and impeded, preventing any chance of a quick counter and consequently the effort of the defence proving to be fruitless.

Having a man constantly playing off the shoulders of the central defenders proves to be a further hindrance to the opposition. It puts pressure on the defenders and prevents an opportunity of respite. Its an added bonus that Daniel has a spirited work rate constantly pressing the opposition higher up the field, forcing defenders back and into errors, allowing Suarez to pick up the second balls.

Sturridge brings the all round package to the field. At 6’2″ he is an imposing aerial threat, another avenue which lacked in the attacking third for the first half of the season. He is not very pacey, but possesses an incredible burst of acceleration which he most recently showcased down the left flank against Nastasic at the Etihad. He has a significant strength advantage over his opponents, although it may not appear at first sight, which allows him to win the ground duels. What this also does is it brings in another part of Sturridge’s game which essentially brings his team-mates into the game. He has a surprisingly strong ability to hold the ball up, which is complemented by his strength. It forces the opposition out of the defence and provides attackers down the flanks and from midfield to get into the game with sufficient time to do so.

The bigger picture of such alterations to the game is that Rodgers now has an opportunity to change the approach being employed. A more direct essence is brought to the game, allowing quicker counters and a greater chance to catch the opposition out. When the opposition is on the back foot, neat touches and quick passes are not the way to penetrate into the box. A swift launch up field with hopes that a striker can get onto the ball, and his partner picking up the second balls is far more effective. This can be seen in some of the recent fixtures, Suarez is managing to link up with Sturridge with greater ease and often to deadly ramifications. It has allowed midfielders to play longer and more direct passes, Steven Gerrard in particular seems to be loving this. He made 18 long ball passes against City, nearly double that of City’s goalkeeper.

Sturridge’s fellow striker Suarez has had a fantastic season so far and is on course to reaching the commendable 30 goal mark (fingers crossed). But despite his goal scoring exploits, Suarez isn’t a natural striker, he’s not a poacher, and isn’t someone who takes his chances. He often over complicates things and scores audacious goals. That is where he differs from Sturridge. The latter likes to sit around the box, play through the middle and score the simpler goals. Not in quality though as his latest goal proves.

As already mentioned, his ability to bring his team-mates into the game is proving to be a worthy approach. Players like Jordan Henderson are increasingly benefiting from the €12 million striker’s inclusion into the squad. The midfield is now quicker in distributing passes and the more attacking of the three midfielders is able to have a better game going forward. Suarez himself loves linking up around the box with a quick one-two pass and Sturridge provides this outlet.

Sturridge’s movements completes his game, making him difficult to mark but easier for his team-mates to find. Suarez’s early days at Liverpool were helped with his link up with Dirk Kuyt. The ‘Suarridge’ partnership is reminiscent of that with Sturridge imitating the effort put in by the Dutchman while finally matching Suarez’ movement stride for stride. When one moves to one side, the other automatically moves as well. They are developing a good understand in the final third. Suarez’ goal against Norwich is evidence of their understanding while there were instances of good link up play (via long balls) against United and Arsenal.

Liverpool’s shrewd transfer business has to be mentioned as well. After previous nightmare January windows, and a horror Summer transfer window, it was a welcome change to see Liverpool doing some smart business. £12 million for 23-year-old talented striker, who could potentially play a big part for England at Brazil 2014 as well, is a terrific piece of business. The £8.5 million for Coutinho sweetens up the January business. While top clubs set out to sign the Llorente’s, Huntelaar’s and Walcott’s of the world, Liverpool can be proud of sneaking in this economical signing early. The potential Sturridge offers and the impact he has already made is incredible. The likes of Chelsea, Arsenal and Spurs could be kicking themselves in the summer when they reflect on this deal.

Daniel Sturridge stands as further proof that often what players (and personnel) need is time. Believe in them and they will deliver. Lucas, Henderson (Downing?) have shown to the Anfield faithful that all they need is a little motivation. Sturridge was rejected by Chelsea’s instant success policy. But, after coming out as winners in the £50 million Torres deal, Liverpool seem to have benefited from this striker deal as well. With 12 points separating the club from that coveted 4th spot, Liverpool have the best chance of getting back to the holy grail of European football since their absence from it. If the Merseyside club are to have any chance of returning to European paradise, make no mistake, we need a player to be right up there.

Originally posted by Sami Faizullah on ‘The Bib Theorists’.

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Dad 23.

Nothing has the power to both age and rejuvenate the soul quite like football. Buried amongst the eulogies for the great Jamie Carragher, who has- just to clarify- neither died nor retired just yet, that much is evident. Tributes for fading legends cascade forth, and it seems the man destined for the Premier League glue factory may yet paddle there on the tears of our collective inner child.

Nearly every man or woman who has held the dream of being a footballer, at some point has to make peace with it. It is just one of football’s many ageisms. The next might be when your idol retires, or indeed realising they are younger than you are. For others, it is watching children being paid in a week what you earn in a year. For those with kids of their own, I can only imagine a whole other set of depressing benchmarks to give your exuberance a kicking.

And so Carragher, fit as a butcher’s dog but now greying at the temples, must have stared into the pitying eyes of his new master Brendan Rodgers and feared that last car ride. ‘Where’s Jamie gone?’ asks Steven Gerrard. ‘A long holiday’ replies Brendan as he bangs the mud off his shovel.

Sportsmen are offered no tonic to age. Even with a heady cocktail of steroids, lies, and the color yellow, Lance Armstrong found his supply of career-Botox finite. For footballers, the Transfer Deadline shines a particularly unflattering light on the crow’s feet of the senior pro.

Around him, Jamie has team-mates almost young enough to be his sons. Had he a little of the Raheem Sterling to him, perhaps grandchildren. One wonders if watching Phillipe Coutinho arrive at Melwood, Carragher questioned whether Liverpool had signed Terry McDermott’s niece. The times they are a-changin’, and in Coutinho and Carragher Liverpool have two players so diametrically opposed, Carragher could kill and eat the slightly-built Brazilian and it’d be written off as food chain justice.

Yet, Carragher’s well-practiced at outlasting arrivals at Anfield, so it’s unlikely that the latest waif with a step-over was what hurried him towards his slippers. He perhaps instead cast fearful glances towards the players leaving Premier League clubs this January, and it was that which led him to call ‘time’.

As he sat there on ‘Deadline Day’, in one of a thousand identical tracksuits, eating his signature dish of plain pasta, I have no doubt Carra flicked over to Sky Sports News curious to see how things were unfolding. For a man who reclines cosily every year knowing the carousel does not let you get on at Bootle, Jim White slinging dimebag rumours would be extra repellent. And when Peter Odemwingie began circling the Queens Park Rangers car park like Collymore on GHB, Carragher was left with only the decision he made. The grim reality of free agent wilderness will hail the retirement of even the bravest of legends.

It will be an emotional procession to retirement, but Jamie I do offer you some solace. Some years ago, in the most time-honoured of ‘wool behaviour’, I popped into the club shop. Struggling to choose my favourite piece of eye-molesting merchandise, I spied none other than Jamie himself at the counter. Of course, I was awestruck.

‘The man is a mountain, go into the dressing room and walk around him’ Shankly said of Ron Yeats, and my mind took the same tour of Jamie. Everything about him was as imagined: that red-faced pre-temper; the wiry frame like six feet of knuckle; pleasantness blended with Scouse agitation. Meeting him is a silly little moment that will stay with me forever.

Why was Jamie there? He was picking up baby-sized home kits with ‘Dad 23’ on the back: one of the cutest damned things you’ll ever see. These days you can see his son James in an almost full size version playing for one of the youth teams, and that really feels like a fact that should age a guy.

And yet it doesn’t. Earlier in the week, Steven Gerrard’s goal against Manchester City brought sadness at the prospect of extinction, but it also reignited the joy of every other goal of his I have burned in my memory. It was strange to know there wouldn’t be many more like it, and yet the goal itself brought all sorts of clichéd childlike wonder, and I felt just that one moment meliorate my entire football soul.

Football gives with one hand, and takes away with the other, but you can bet your life it’ll give it back a moment later. You’re only ever one rewind of the clock away from your next rejuvenation, and that even goes for the immortal Jamie Carragher. So I say to Jamie: don’t worry, there’ll be plenty of moments for you to feel young again. In the meantime, just enjoy a few months of growing old: you’ve earned it ‘Dad 23’.

Originally posted by BreakfastPercy on ‘Red and White Kop’

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Rodgers’ Revolution Requires A Defensive Overhaul.

From 1 September, Liverpool pressed their face against the transfer window and looked wistfully into the barren distance for a goalscorer. After years of dwindling goal tallies, it seemed the acquisition of one would be a simple solution to their problems. They missed out on Clint Dempsey; they would not make the same mistake twice.

The signing of Daniel Sturridge was essential – four goals in his first six games already point to the move being a masterstroke. In the four games he and Luis Suárez have started together, Liverpool have scored 11 times. The decline up front has started to reverse.

But as the bated breath of the club steamed up the window as they waited for a striker, there was a neglect of the hodgepodge lurking behind them.

This is Anfield, where the process of building towards a stable future is somewhat akin to a never-ending game of Whac-A-Mole, with Rodgers now the man to blast one mole into oblivion only to see another appear elsewhere.

Liverpool’s defence is now officially an issue. It is porous and ragged, bereft of confidence and self-belief. Rodgers’ side have conceded two or more goals in 13 of their 25 league games this season, while 10 individual errors have led to goals. With 13 games to play, the Reds have already conceded 32 goals – by way of comparison, the 2009-10 season ended with just 35 in the goals-against column.

Liverpool are a team habitually founded on defensive stability. In the title-winning season of 1978-79 they conceded just 16 goals in 42 games – four of them at home. In more recent eras, Gérard Houllier’s treble-winning side was largely founded on clean sheets, while Rafael Benítez’s Champions League success was defined by shut-outs away to Juventus and Chelsea.

Yet figures only tell part of this sorry tale. For the full narrative, observe the transformation of last year’s player of the season, Martin Skrtel, from colossus to walking catastrophe as he wrestles futilely with strong opposition centre forwards. See Daniel Agger, the tattooed steed, lose concentration and late runners into the box. See Pepe Reina, once one of the world’s best goalkeepers, always looking a moment away from cataclysm.

These are not bad players. In fact, Reina and Agger are very good, while Skrtel – though inconsistent – demonstrated his true capabilities last season. It is not just this trio, either: José Enrique, while improving, is an enterprising full-back prone to making brainless decisions, and while Andre Wisdom could be an England defender for years to come, only experience will eradicate his ball-watching.

It says a lot when Jamie Carragher, so readily written off in recent times, is the outstanding defensive performer at the age of 35. What little pace he once had may have evaporated completely, and those lung-busting blocks are now a rarity, but he still provides organisation, nous and experience. The more strained ears in the stands can hear Carragher’s dog-whistle Bootle voice shrieking instructions to all.

It still is not good enough, of course, especially with the announcement that the old warhorse is putting himself out to pasture at the end of the season. Though two points against Arsenal and Manchester City away were welcome, the is the feeling that it could have been more.

With the forward positions seemingly sorted, Rodgers must look to fix his rearguard – though it is not entirely an issue of individuals. The defence is not protected enough by the midfield at times, particularly given Lucas Leiva’s continued absence through injury. There is also the issue of learning a new way of playing on the job, with the cogs noticeably turning in players’ heads as they adapt to a new style of style.

On top of that is a suggestion that, given the disharmony between the back five at times, the onus in training sessions is on the attack. With no big, strong centre forward to train with, perhaps it is little surprise Skrtel and Agger struggle against such types on weekends.

The defence should not be completely written off, even though the individual errors continue to furrow brows. Tweaks all over the pitch can help, as can time. But after five years of Agger, Skrtel, Carragher and Reina constantly rotating as the central spine, perhaps a change is needed.

Now is the time to re-assess options available ahead of the summer – especially with Carragher on his way. Sebastián Coates will likely leave and Enrique needs competition– as do Agger and Skrtel. A big, physical centre-back and a left-back are on the agenda, then.

It is time to look past the transfer window once more, though care should be taken not to disregard the overall balance and let the glass get so steamy this time.

Originally posted by Kristian Walsh on ‘Life’s a Pitch’.

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They Shoot, They Score, But Should Less Be More?

Liverpool: Have had the most shots (425) in Europe’s top 5 leagues this season, but 87 of the 98 teams have a better conversion rate (7.6%) — (@WhoScored) January 19, 2013

 

The above tweet from WhoScored was tweeted prior to game against Norwich, and 9 goals in 3 games has seen the shot conversion rate increase to 8.4% and no doubt move Liverpool up the rankings. But it got me got me thinking, one of the premises of the patient, possession based style of football that Brendan Rodgers would like Liverpool to play is that it should in theory create better chances, but with the likely effect that less chances are actually created. So what has happened, how is it that Liverpool have created more chances than anyone else in Europe whilst also having one of the lowest conversion rates?

Whilst a relatively crude measure, as they are driven by both the quality of the finishing as well as the quality of chances created, I’ll start by looking at shooting accuracy and conversion rates, as they can give an indication of how easy the chances created are to score, as on average, a player will convert a greater proportion of easier chances.

LFC Shooting Stats Table 1	Shot per Game	Shooting accuracy	Total shot conversion	Chance conversion	Shots on target Conversion	CCC conversion
Liverpool 2011-12	17.6	40.20%	6.30%	8.20%	20.30%	29.30%
Liverpool 2012-13	19.1	40.50%	8.40%	11.70%	29.00%	37.90%

Conversion rates exclude own goals. Shooting Accuracy excludes blocked shots. Chance = A shot on or off target, excluding blocked shots. CCC = Clear Cut Chance

The first thing that jumps out is that Liverpool are on average taking 1.5 shots per game more this season compared to last. So much for a more patient build up play! Whilst shooting accuracy has changed little, conversion rates have seen an improvement, and what is also noticeable is the easier the chance, so shots on target conversion and CCC conversion, the greater the improvement.

Is this down to creating easier chances or just better finishing? It is well-known that Liverpool’s conversion rates were poor last season, as discussed in this article on EPLIndex.com, but they become even worse when you consider that Liverpool actually created a lot of good chances. When the shot difficulty is also taken into account, as has been done at team level byDifferentgame, and on individual player level by Opta, then it is clear just how bad Liverpool’s finishing was last season, so perhaps it couldn’t get any worse and the only way was up.

I think it is important to not only compare to how Liverpool did last season, but also compared to the rest of the league, and as we can see, Liverpool are lagging behind when looking at shooting accuracy and shots and chance conversion, and it’s not until we again look at the easier chances that they start to look more respectable. However, Liverpool’s current aspirations are to return to being a Champions League club, and when compared to the top 4 averages, Liverpool’s shooting accuracy and conversion rates look even worse. There is clearly some work to be done.

LFC Shooting Stats Table 2	Shooting accuracy	Total shot conversion	Chance conversion	Shots on target Conversion	CCC Conversion
Liverpool	40.50%	8.40%	11.70%	29.00%	37.90%
League Average	44.80%	9.80%	13.20%	29.50%	37.60%
Top 4 Average	48.00%	11.40%	15.50%	32.30%	38.40%

So what’s happened since last season? Well, for a start, 2 of Liverpool’s worst culprits are not with the club this season, Kuyt having left for Turkey and Carroll on loan at West Ham, although that was countered by two of the better finishers in Bellamy and Maxi also leaving. The other big difference is the massive improvement by Suarez’, and having taken 29% of Liverpool’s shots this season, as well as 27 more shots than anyone else in the league, it is his improvement that is driving Liverpool’s improvement. 2+2=11’sblog has taken a closer look at Suarez’ improvement from last season to this, but when you take Suarez’ numbers out of the equation, whilst the rest of the team is converting more than the previous season, they are still not good enough when you compare to the rest of the league, although only having one recognised striker for most of the season is unlikely to have helped.

 

LFC Shooting Stats Table 3	Shooting accuracy	Total shot conversion	Chance conversion	Shots on target conversion	CCC conversion
Liverpool 2011-12	40.20%	6.30%	8.20%	20.30%	29.30%
Liverpool 2012-13	40.50%	8.40%	11.70%	29.00%	37.90%
Liverpool 2012-13 (exc. Suarez)	38.00%	6.80%	9.70%	25.60%	26.50%

Are Liverpool creating the easier chances we would expect them to? Well, by a number of measures, they do not appear to be. If we consider that the more defenders there are between the player shooting and the goal then the harder the shot is, as there is a less clear sight of goal, possibly more pressure being applied to the person taking the shot, and more chance of a shot being blocked, then the percentage of shots being blocked is a good proxy for difficulty of the type of shots being taken. Last season 22.8% of Liverpool’s shots were blocked, this season that has increased to 28.7%. Another measure we can look at is what proportion of chances being made are Clear Cut Chances, the greater the proportion, the easier the chances in general that are being created. Last season 17.9% of Liverpool’s chances were Clear Cut Chances, this year it has fallen to 17.0%. We can also look at the rate of Clear Cut Chances per game, this has also reduced this season, although only by a small amount from 2.4 per game to 2.3 per game, using the CCC conversion rate, this could have amounted to another goal or 2 scored so far this season.

LFC Shooting Stats Table 4	% Shots Blocked	%CCC	CCC per Game
Liverpool 2011-12	22.80%	17.90%	2.4
Liverpool 2012-13	28.70%	17.00%	2.3

So Liverpool are not are not necessarily creating easier chances, but their conversion rates have gone up, so the quality of their finishing must have improved, right? Well, at the most basic level we’ve seen that shooting accuracy has barely increased. Another way to see if it is improved finishing that has improved is to look at shot placement and if the shots are in the corners, but in this case, shot placement between seasons is also pretty similar. Last season saw 46.4% of shots in the bottom corner and 13.0% in the top corners, whilst this season has seen 47.1% and 11.6% respectively. However it did seem that many goal keepers saved their best game of the season for Liverpool last year, and as noted in the blog by Opta posted above, both Suarez and Kuyt were particularly unlucky, missing out on an expected 11.8 goals between them due to good goal keeping by Opta’s calculations (although Bellamy was fortunate with 3 of his goals). When you also consider that Liverpool had a record-breaking number of shots hit the woodwork, it becomes clear how much of a role luck, although I think the term chance is more appropriate, can play.

Perhaps counter intuitively, despite the change in style introduced by Rodgers, Liverpool are in fact creating more chances than last season, and it is this increase in chance creation, as well as a big improvement in the finishing of easier chances that should be scored that has seen Liverpool’s goal return improve this season. However they are a team in transition, and my guess is that they are now creating better quality chances than they were earlier in the season. 25 goals in the last 10 league games certainly gives that impression anyway! Where once there were few players making runs into the box and shots were taken with little chance of scoring from, they are now combining better decision-making and improved movement to create easier chances. The addition of Sturridge, as we have already seen, and Coutinho, as well as the return to fitness of Borini, should help in terms of both creating and finishing chances, although we may see less shots being taken. Brendan Rodgers will hope that by this time next year, Liverpool will have a conversion rate that is better than 87 of the teams in Europe’s top 5 leagues, rather than worse.

Originally Posted By The_Woolster on ‘EPL Index’.

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